1st NFP Friday of 2023

1st NFP Friday of 2023

Welcome to 2023 everyone! If 2022 was a nice year in terms of trading opportunities, this year is going to be even better, so get ready. 

The labour market is one of the most lagging indicators and it kept on showing strength throughout the 2022, which disappointed the Fed as they wanted to see cracks in the data and a pickup in unemployment. In fact, they keep complaining about the “extremely tight labour market” and this isn’t giving them much confidence in letting go from their tightening process.

Friday – brings us the all-important NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls).  They expect the result to be around 200k jobs restored, Unemployment to remain at 3.7% while Average Hourly m/m and y/y earnings are up 0.4% and 5% respectively. We will also get Factory orders, Durable goods orders and Cap Goods ordered and shipped.

While it feels good and we may get an early new year rally– expect the markets and the economy to remain skittish, as every single concern out there is still out there – think:  Trade, FED, Interest Rates and Balance Sheet, a resurging covid variants, Slowing Global Growth, 4th Qtr. Earnings and the coming slowdown in those earnings for 2023.

Thursday 5th January High Impact Event

The times below are GMT+2

  • 15.15 – US – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Friday 6th January High Impact Events

The times below are GMT+2

12.00 – Europe – CPI Flash Estimate & Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

15.30 – Canada – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

15.30 – US – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

17.00 – US – ISM Services PMI     

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

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