Coronavirus Vaccine Euphoria Wears Off Analysis – 12th November 2020

Today’s Market Outlook

The market mood has soured with coronavirus vaccine euphoria wears off, stocks under pressure, and the dollar rising. Europe and Asian markets had a largely negative start to the market open. Concerns about the spread of the virus outweigh vaccine hopes. US inflation and jobless claims, and Powell, Lagarde, and Bailey will speak later today.

US coronavirus cases have hit a record high above 144,000 and hospitalisations have topped 65,000 for the first time. Deaths are also on the rise as the winter wave is worsening. Germany’s caseload has stabilised but mortalities are on the rise while Italy is under pressure to follow other countries in Europe and start a nationwide lockdown.

The FTSE (^FTSE) was lower by 1% in early trading on Thursday. Elsewhere in Europe, the CAC 40 (^FCHI) fell by 0.7% in Paris and the DAX (^GDAXI) dropped by 1% in Frankfurt.

Moderna may join Pfizer in announcing interim results from its coronavirus vaccine Phase 3 trial, perhaps as early as next week. Top US epidemiologist Anthony Fauci said he would be surprised if Moderna fails to report success as both firms use the same mRNA technology. Early in the week, Pfizer announced a 90% efficacy. AstraZeneca and Johnson&Johnson also follow the same approach.

President-elect Joe Biden continues working on his transition, announcing his appointee for Chief of Staff. President Donald Trump refuses to concede tweeted “we will win and is asking for support to his “Official Election Defence Fund.” Georgia will begin a manual recount, yet experts do not expect Biden’s lead to change there. The Democrat is also ahead in several other states as counting continues.

EU and UK negotiators are set to miss the self-imposed November 15 deadline and hope to reach an accord next week. Fisheries, state aid, and trade around Ireland remain thorny issues.

Gross Domestic Product grew by 15.5% in the third quarter, marginally below estimates. Britain is under lockdown, and while the case curve is flattening, mortalities have hit the grim 50,000 milestone.

US Consumer Price Index figures for October are set to show relatively subdued inflation, in line with the trend in previous months. Weekly jobless claims carry expectations for another drop.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will host Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powel and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey in a panel at an ECB forum. Comments about additional stimulus may rock markets.

Today’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT+2.

15.30 – U.S. CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m & Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses & Gold.

18.00 – Crude Oil Inventories

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses & Energies.

18.45 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.

18.45 – BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.

18.45 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

These events have the potential to influence the markets which means there is plenty of trading opportunities. 

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