US Inflation & Employment Data: Core CPI, PPI, and weekly jobless claims will offer a clearer view of inflation trends and labor market stability.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Markets will closely monitor the BOC’s rate statement and press conference for insights into future monetary policy.
UK GDP Data: A critical indicator of the UK’s economic performance, particularly as markets price in potential further easing by the Bank of England.
What Now?
This week, global markets will focus on the evolving US economic landscape after a mixed jobs report painted a conflicting picture of the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls added just 151,000 jobs in February, underperforming expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, signaling potential softening in the labor market. A rise in part-time employment for economic reasons, coupled with a record number of 8.9 million Americans holding multiple jobs, points to deteriorating labor quality. The Federal Reserve’s rate path could become clearer depending on how upcoming inflation and producer price data align with the recent jobs report.
Treasury yields fell after the jobs report, with 2-year notes—highly sensitive to Fed policy—dropping to a 5-month low near 3.84%. Market participants now expect three rate cuts this year, with the first potentially arriving in May. However, sticky inflation and consumer spending weakness will keep Powell’s commentary in focus.
On Trump’s Tariffs, the latest developments show a temporary pause on tariffs for Canada and Mexico until April 2, but uncertainty remains over the broader trade policy outlook. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted, the US economy has become dependent on government spending, meaning any tariff-driven disruption or fiscal adjustment will have ripple effects on employment, inflation, and growth. Markets remain highly sensitive to any shifts in Trump’s trade stance, especially after China retaliated against US tariffs this week.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BOC) meets this week, with investors seeking clarity on its stance following recent economic contraction. Canadian GDP data confirmed a -0.2% decline, raising recessionary fears. The BOC is likely to maintain a cautious stance, balancing weaker growth with persistent inflation risks.
The UK economy will also be in focus, with monthly GDP data shedding light on how the economy is coping with slowing global demand and high borrowing costs. The data will feed into Bank of England rate expectations, which are increasingly leaning toward further easing.
USD/JPY has maintained a persistent downtrend since late 2024, recently accelerating below key moving averages (34 & 100 WMA), which formed a bearish crossover. The latest decline pushed prices through the psychological 148.00 support, opening the door for further downside.
Key Levels
Resistance: 148.56, 149.60, 151.29
Support: 147.81, 146.87, 145.82, 144.13
Alternative Scenario
A break back above 149.60 would signal a potential short-term reversal, targeting 151.29.
Impactful Events
US CPI & PPI (inflation gauges impacting Fed expectations)
JOLTS and Unemployment Claims (labor market health)
Trump tariff developments (JPY safe-haven flows)
NZD/CAD – Daily Chart Analysis
NZD/CAD has broken above a long-term descending trendline, signaling a potential trend reversal. The breakout, supported by rising RSI and positive MACD crossover, suggests further upside potential. However, resistance at 0.8233 must be cleared to unlock the full upside.
Key Levels
Resistance: 0.8233, 0.8278, 0.8328
Support: 0.8149, 0.8068
Alternative Scenario
A retreat below 0.8149 could invalidate the bullish breakout, pulling the pair back into its previous downtrend.
Trump Tariffs on Canada (trade tensions influencing CAD)
NZD sentiment linked to risk appetite and global economic outlook
Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante.
If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].
We are Errante. Trading made personal.
Share with a Friend
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 42.11% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.Read our Risk Disclosure.
We use cookies on this site to improve your website experience, enhancing also site navigation and experience, analysis of site usage and assistance in our marketing efforts. By clicking “Save Changes” or continuing to use this site you consent to our use of cookies. To find out more, read our Privacy Policy and Cookies Policy
Functional Cookies
Functional Cookies help a site work well, they enable additional features which can make the user experience better.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
Analytical and Promotional Cookies
Analytical cookies are used to determine usage of a site, they may track individual users, but only to the extent to allow a proper user journey through the site. They are not used for targeting adverts.
Promotional cookies keep track of information to tailor advertisements to you and to measure their success. This includes using previously collected information about your interests to select ads, processing data about what advertisements were shown, how often they were shown, when and where they were shown, and whether you took any action related to the advertisement, including for example clicking an ad or making a purchase.
Please enable Strictly Necessary Cookies first so that we can save your preferences!
Cookie Policy
Cookies are small pieces of information, normally consisting of just letters and numbers, which are automatically stored on your computer (or any other devise used to enter the Internet) when you visit a website and offer an insight your activity and preferences.
Our Website uses cookies to help us improve our website performance and your browsing experience. Please refer to this Policy in order to get a better understanding of what cookies our Website uses; how do we use them and what is their purpose.
Croatian
Español
Italiano
Português
