Errante’s The Week Ahead: 14^th – 18^th July 2025 

Highlights of the Week 

• US Inflation in Focus: June CPI and PPI releases will test the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance, with markets closely watching for any signs of renewed price pressures or disinflation. 

• China Q2 GDP: A critical gauge for global risk sentiment, as weaker-than-expected data could intensify fears of global demand slowdown and weigh on commodity-linked currencies. 

• Eurozone and UK Inflation: CPI updates from the Eurozone and UK will help define the next moves for EUR and GBP pairs, amid ongoing questions about the trajectory of European monetary policy. 

What Now? 

Macro & Policy Narrative 

Global markets enter the week at a pivotal juncture, with inflation data, central bank rhetoric, and trade tensions all in sharp focus. 

US Policy Outlook & Inflation: 

After a string of upside surprises in economic data, the June US CPI and PPI numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday will be the main catalysts. The Federal Reserve remains committed to a “wait-and-see” approach, as Chair Powell recently flagged that tariff-driven imported inflation could complicate the path to rate cuts. Any upside inflation surprise would likely push back expectations for the first Fed cut, strengthening the dollar and pressuring risk assets. Conversely, softer prints may revive bets for late-year policy easing. 

Tariff Uncertainty: 

Trade rhetoric remains a central risk, as the White House has postponed new tariffs on Chinese and EU imports until August, but markets remain sensitive to any escalation. Major investment banks (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs) are warning that further tariffs could spark stagflationary pressures globally—lifting the USD and JPY, while weighing on cyclical and emerging market currencies. 

China’s Growth Signals: 

China’s Q2 GDP report is expected to show further moderation, reflecting weaker domestic demand and export headwinds. A downside surprise could intensify calls for additional stimulus and dampen appetite for risk, particularly in the Australian dollar and commodity-sensitive pairs. 

Europe & UK: 

The Eurozone and UK release their June CPI prints and (for the UK) GDP data. The ECB and Bank of England are both navigating disinflation but remain cautious about premature easing, which may cap rallies in EUR and GBP. 

In summary: 

Markets are in a “wait-and-react” mode, with inflation releases and policy signals likely to set the tone for FX, bond, and commodity markets. Caution remains warranted, with headline risks skewed toward renewed volatility. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3) 

Monday 14^th July: 

• No high-impact data 

Tuesday 15^th July: 

• 05:00 – CNY: GDP (YoY) (Q2) (Prev: 5.40%) 

• 15:30 – USD: Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) (0.30% f/c, Prev: 0.10%) 

• 15:30 – USD: CPI (YoY) (Jun) (Prev: 2.40%) 

• 15:30 – USD: CPI (MoM) (Jun) (0.30% f/c, Prev: 0.10%) 

Wednesday 16^th July: 

• 09:00 – GBP: CPI (YoY) (Jun) (Prev: 3.40%) 

• 15:30 – USD: PPI (MoM) (Jun) (0.20% f/c, Prev: 0.10%) 

• 17:30 – USD: Crude Oil Inventories (Prev: 7.070M) 

Thursday 17^th July: 

• 12:00 – EUR: CPI (YoY) (Jun) (2.00% f/c, Prev: 2.00%) 

• 15:30 – USD: Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) (0.30% f/c, Prev: -0.30%) 

• 15:30 – USD: Initial Jobless Claims (Prev: 227K) 

• 15:30 – USD: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) (Prev: -4) 

• 15:30 – USD: Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) (0.00% f/c, Prev: -0.90%) 

Friday 18^th July: 

• No high-impact data 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

AUDUSD – Daily 

 
AUDUSD continues its gradual recovery, currently testing the upper end of its recent range. The pair trades above its weighted moving average and the midline of the Bollinger Bands, hinting at underlying bullish momentum. A clear break above the 0.6590 area (June highs and 100% Fibonacci extension) could pave the way for a move toward the 127.2% (0.6618) and 161.8% (0.6655) Fibonacci levels. 

Momentum & Oscillators: 

• RSI: 59.35 – Positive but not overbought, suggesting room for further gains. 

• MACD: Slightly positive, with histogram showing modest bullish momentum. 

• Awesome Oscillator (AO): Above zero, confirming improving momentum. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 0.6589 (100% Fib), 0.6618 (127.2% Fib), 0.6655 (161.8% Fib) 

• Support: 0.6549 (61.8% Fib), 0.6485 (swing low/Bollinger Band base) 

Alternative Scenario: 

A failure to sustain above 0.6590 could trigger a pullback toward 0.6549 or the lower Bollinger Band (around 0.6485), especially if US data surprises on the upside or if risk sentiment sours on Chinese GDP disappointment. 

Fundamental Context: 

AUD is sensitive to China’s growth data and global risk appetite. A soft Chinese GDP print or risk-off tone from US inflation/tariff news could cap further rallies. 

XAUUSD – Gold Spot, Daily 

Gold is consolidating within a broad triangle pattern, with the daily chart showing a breakout attempt above the cluster of Alligator indicator moving averages. The precious metal has cleared the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (3,334) and is challenging resistance at the 100% (3,365.6) and 127.2% (3,388) extension levels. 

Momentum & Oscillators: 

• RSI: 54 – Neutral, not yet at overbought levels. 

• MACD: Gently positive, suggesting early bullish momentum. 

• Awesome Oscillator (AO): Negative but trending upward, signaling a potential shift toward bullish momentum. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 3,366 (100% Fib), 3,388 (127.2% Fib), 3,417 (161.8% Fib) 

• Support: 3,334 (61.8% Fib/triangle base), 3,303 (23.6% Fib), 3,283 (pattern support) 

Alternative Scenario: 

If gold fails to hold above the Alligator and key Fib levels, expect a retest of 3,334 or lower toward 3,303–3,283, particularly if the USD strengthens on hot US inflation data. 

Fundamental Context: 

Gold remains a barometer for risk sentiment and inflation/tariff headlines. Ongoing trade tensions and sticky US inflation could drive renewed demand, while a hawkish Fed or risk-on rally may limit upside. 

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