Errante’s The Week Ahead: 24th – 28th November 2025 

This Week’s Highlights 

• Fed December cut now unlikely: futures imply roughly one-third odds of a 25 bp cut and about two-thirds probability that the Fed stays on hold at the 9–10 December meeting, after a stronger delayed jobs report and hawkish tones in the latest minutes. 

• Gold is consolidating above 4,000 USD/oz after failing to hold above 4,200; the metal is building a floor rather than entering a full bear market, with direction now heavily dependent on the Fed path and real yields.  

• Euro area inflation has softened to 2.1% in October, just above the ECB’s target, while UK CPI slipped to 3.6% – both trends support gradual easing in 2026 but do not force immediate action.  

• Thanksgiving week in the US packs in nearly all key late-month macro releases into Tuesday and Wednesday: US retail sales, PPI, GDP, core PCE and durable goods will define the macro narrative heading into the December FOMC. 

What Now? 

Risk sentiment is fragile as we head into a shortened US trading week. A violent reversal in US equities has erased more than 5% from the S&P 500’s late-October peak, with a particularly aggressive selloff in high-beta tech and crypto. The Nasdaq 100 has dropped almost 8% from its record, and intraday price action showed a classic bearish engulfing pattern as an early rally after Nvidia’s earnings was completely unwound. This is consistent with a market that is de-risking crowded “AI and momentum” trades while liquidity thins ahead of year-end. 

Behind the price action sit three macro forces that FX traders need to watch. 

First, the Fed. The October meeting delivered another 25 bp cut, but the combination of a stronger delayed jobs report and firm activity data has pushed the market away from expecting a follow-up move in December. Different banks have dropped their December cut forecasts, and futures now price roughly a 65–70% probability that the Fed holds rates steady.  
The minutes reveal an increasingly split FOMC: doves emphasise disinflation and rising real rates, while hawks are uncomfortable cutting further without clearer evidence of labour-market cooling. 

For US indices, that means the “policy put” is less reliable. Earnings are still broadly fine, but valuations in mega-cap tech had discounted a smooth AI profit cycle and repeated rate cuts. With those assumptions challenged, investors are demanding a higher risk premium. This does not automatically imply a bear market; historically, sharp reversals of the sort of seen last week can be followed by positive one-month returns as panic fades, but the path is noisy and closely tied to data surprises. 

Second, gold and real yields. Gold has retreated from above 4,300 toward the 4,000–4,100 area as real 10-year yields stabilise and the dollar edges higher. Yet buyers are still defending the 4,000 region, which multiple analyses describe as a developing “floor” rather than a top.  
For FX traders, gold is effectively the high-beta expression of “Fed credibility vs. growth anxiety.” If this week’s PCE and GDP data show slowing but resilient growth with inflation contained, the metal can consolidate sideways while DXY grinds higher. A sharp downside surprise in the data, however, would quickly revive cut pricing, weaken the dollar and re-ignite gold’s uptrend from this 4,000 base. 

Third, Europe and the UK. Euro area HICP has now slipped to 2.1% in October, with core around 2.4%, very close to the ECB’s target.  
UK CPI has eased to 3.6% from 3.8%, helped by softer energy inflation, though core and services inflation remain uncomfortably high.  
Markets now expect the ECB and BoE to continue easing through 2026, but at a measured pace. This week’s German GDP and, on Friday, German CPI will fine-tune those expectations at the margin rather than radically change them. The bigger story is that Europe’s disinflation is ahead of the US, but growth is weaker. That keeps EUR/USD caught between a mildly supportive rates story and a structurally weaker growth story. 

Putting everything together, the near-term playbook for FX is: 

• Dollar strength is still the path of least resistance while the Fed cut is repriced lower and the US data flow remains decent. 

• Gold is a buy-on-deep-dips candidate near 4,000 if data lean dovish, but in the short run it is vulnerable to any upside surprises in US PCE or GDP. 

• EUR and GBP are in a tug-of-war between softer inflation (dovish) and the prospect that the Fed is closer to pausing cuts (dollar-supportive). That favours trading ranges rather than chasing breakouts until the data breaks the stalemate. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+2) 

Monday, 24^th November 

• All day – Japan: Labour Day holiday. Liquidity in JPY crosses may be thinner, especially during the Asian session. 

Tuesday, 25^th November 

• 09:00 – Euro area: German GDP (Q3, QoQ). Consensus looks for 0.0% after a previous −0.3%, effectively testing whether Germany has exited its shallow recession. A downside surprise would reinforce expectations for further ECB easing and weigh on EUR crosses. 

• 15:30 – US: Core Retail Sales (Sep, MoM). Key gauge of underlying consumption strength; previous 0.7%. 

• 15:30 – US: PPI (Sep, MoM). Headline wholesale inflation, expected near 0.3%; important for inflation-pipeline views. 

• 15:30 – US: Retail Sales (Sep, MoM). Headline demand signal, forecast 0.4% versus 0.6% prior. 

• 17:00 – US: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov). Expected slightly softer at 93.3 versus 94.6; any large miss could amplify equity weakness and support defensive FX. 

Wednesday, 26^th November 

• 03:00 – New Zealand: RBNZ interest rate decision (expected 2.25% vs 2.50% prior). A surprise hold at 2.25% or a dovish statement would pressure NZD, especially against USD and AUD. 

• 12:00 – UK: Autumn Forecast Statement. Fiscal stance and growth projections may influence gilt yields and GBP if markets perceive either tighter or looser medium-term policy. 

• 15:30 – US: Durable Goods Orders (Sep, MoM). Volatile but important for capex; consensus around 0.3% after a strong 2.9%. 

• 15:30 – US: GDP (Q3, QoQ, second estimate). Previous 3.8%. Any revision, especially downward, will be closely watched for its impact on Fed expectations. 

• 15:30 – US: Initial Jobless Claims. Weekly labour-market health check; consensus 220k. 

• 16:45 – US: Chicago PMI (Nov). Regional manufacturing survey, previous 43.8; still in contraction. 

• 17:00 – US: Core PCE Price Index (Sep, MoM and YoY). The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, expected at 0.2% m/m and 2.9% y/y. This is the single most important inflation release before December FOMC. 

• 17:00 – US: New Home Sales (Sep). Forecast 710k vs 800k prior; housing sensitivity to higher mortgage rates remains a key macro theme. 

• 17:30 – US: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous −3.426M; interacts with the recent drift lower in Brent as markets price a possible Ukraine peace framework and evolving Russian sanctions. 

Thursday, 27^th November 

• All day – United States: Thanksgiving Day. US cash markets closed, FX and futures in holiday mode with thinner liquidity and wider spreads. 

Friday, 28^th November 

• US equities: Thanksgiving early close at 13:00 New York time; expect reduced liquidity throughout the session. 

• 15:00 – Euro area: German CPI (Nov, MoM). First look at November euro-area inflation via the largest economy; previous 0.3%. A downside surprise would confirm that euro inflation is drifting below the ECB target in 2026. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

1. US500 (S&P 500 cash, weekly) – From melt-up to controlled correction 

Current technical conditions and momentum 

The weekly chart of US500 shows a market transitioning from a parabolic advance into a controlled correction: 

Price has pulled back from the recent record high near 6,900, with current levels around 6,525. The index is now hovering above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire February–October rally, at roughly 6,420. 

Weekly Bollinger Bands are still sloping higher, but the upper band has flattened, and price has rolled down from the top band toward the mid-band, signalling loss of upside momentum rather than a complete trend reversal. 

The VWAP from the major February low sits near 6,200, aligning with earlier resistance and now a secondary support zone. 

The weekly PPO has turned down from stretched levels, with the signal line rolling over and the histogram negative, confirming a momentum inflection. ROC is mildly negative, and Money Flow Index is drifting from overbought back toward the neutral 50 area. Volume expanded on recent down weeks, consistent with de-risking rather than a gentle pause. 

Main scenario 

Corrective pullback within a bullish primary trend 

The base case for the coming weeks is that the S&P 500 is undergoing a multi-week mean reversion rather than starting a full bear market: 

As long as the index holds above the 23.6% retracement at 6,420 on a weekly closing basis, the structure can be described as a shallow pullback within an uptrend. 

A break of intraday support but a close back above 6,420 would likely trigger short covering from systematic accounts and dip buying from longer-term allocators. 

If macro data this week are mixed but not disastrous, the index could carve out a consolidation band between roughly 6,400 and 6,800, allowing oscillators to reset while trend followers remain net long. 

Key levels 

• Resistance: 6,750–6,900 (recent highs and psychological round number); beyond that, extension targets lie above 7,000. 

• First support: 6,420 (23.6% Fibonacci). 

• Secondary support: 6,140 (0% retracement of the last impulse leg and horizontal zone from the spring consolidation). 

• Structural support: 5,610 (61.8% retracement of the whole advance and near the lower weekly Bollinger band) and around 5,260, where the long-term VWAP and 200-week moving average cluster. 

Alternative scenario 

Deeper risk-off flush 

The risk case is that a combination of weak data and a “no-cut” Fed stance trigger a more aggressive de-leveraging: 

A decisive weekly close below 6,420 would open the door to 6,140. That level is critical; a break there would convert the move into a 10–12% correction and likely pull the VIX to new cycle highs. 

Below 6,140, the next meaningful magnet becomes 5,610, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the March 2024–October 2025 bull leg. Such a scenario would likely coincide with rising recession fears, a more defensive equity sector rotation, and stronger demand for USD and JPY. 

For FX trading, the base-case equity correction supports a firmer dollar via risk aversion, but the alternative deep-flush scenario could eventually weaken USD if markets begin to price outright Fed cuts in 2026 as growth fears dominate. 

2. DXY (US Dollar Index, weekly) – Basing pattern turning into an up-swing 

Current trend and momentum 

The DXY weekly chart reinforces the idea of a maturing dollar upswing: 

The index has risen from a 3.5-year low around 96.2 and now trades near 100.2. A three-month consolidation has given way to a push toward a local high just below 101. 

Price is above the 20-week moving average and grinding along an ascending trendline drawn from the May low, indicating a young but persistent uptrend. 

The rally has retraced more than 61.8% of the prior downswing, with that Fibonacci level sitting at 98.7 and now acting as firm support. 

Momentum confirms the constructive picture: weekly PPO is positive and rising, ROC is above zero, and Money Flow Index is climbing from mid-range levels, pointing to steady but not euphoric inflows. Bollinger Bands, after a period of contraction, are beginning to widen as volatility returns. 

Main scenario 

Continuation toward 101–103 

The central scenario is a continuation of the dollar recovery: 

While DXY holds above 98.7 and the rising trendline, dips are likely to be bought by investors hedging risks around the December FOMC and global growth. 

The first upside objective is the 127.2% Fibonacci extension near 101.4. A weekly close above that level would target the 161.8% extension around 102.8, and potentially the 200% extension near 104.3 over a multi-month horizon if US data remains resilient and the Fed stays cautious on further cuts. 

In this pathway, EUR/USD would struggle to sustain rallies above the mid-1.08s, USD/JPY would be supported on dips (subject to Japanese intervention risks), and funding currencies like CHF and JPY would underperform. 

Key levels  

• Immediate resistance: 

• 100.20–100.50 – recent 3-month high and 100% Fibonacci retracement area. 

• 101.35 – 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the basing leg. 

• 102.75 – 161.8% extension; a break here would signal a much stronger dollar leg. 

• 104.30 – 200% extension and major upside target on the current structure. 

• Support: 

• 99.00–99.20 – rising trendline support and recent swing lows. 

• 98.70 – 61.8% retracement level; key pivot for keeping the uptrend intact. 

• 96.20 – 3.5-year low / 0% Fibonacci level; loss of this zone would invalidate the medium-term bullish base. 

Alternative scenario 

Failed breakout and return to the range 

The alternative is that this week’s US data underwhelms and markets swing back toward expecting an early-2026 easing cycle: 

A sustained move back below 99.5 followed by a weekly close under 98.7 would mark a failed breakout and re-open a trading range between roughly 96.5 and 99.0. 

That would probably coincide with a renewed bid in gold above 4,100, a more convincing rebound in EUR/USD and risk-on behaviour in higher-beta EM FX. 

For now, the weight of evidence from both macro and technical sides still leans toward a gently stronger dollar, but Thanksgiving-thinned liquidity can exaggerate moves around the US data cluster. 

In summary, this week is about whether the data flow justifies the market’s recent repricing of Fed expectations. A stabilising but still elevated dollar, a consolidating gold market above 4,000, and an equity index in controlled correction all point to a regime where direction comes not from a single headline, but from how the mosaic of GDP, PCE, retail sales and confidence reshape the probability of that elusive December rate cut. 

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