Errante’s The Week Ahead: 2^nd – 6^th June 2025 

Highlights of the Week 

1. NFP on Friday: All eyes on the U.S. jobs report; forecast drops to 130K from 177K. 

2. BoC and ECB Decisions: Rate cuts anticipated; CAD and EUR pairs under pressure. 

3. Tariff Uncertainty Rises: U.S. court pushback vs Trump’s proposed EU tariffs renews market volatility. 

What Now:  

U.S. Jobs, Tariffs, and Central Bank Pivots 

The upcoming week is set to test market resilience amid a trio of forces: rising trade tensions, moderating U.S. labor momentum, and major central bank decisions. President Trump’s renewed threats to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods and tech firms like Apple has reignited geopolitical concerns. While the judiciary has slowed parts of the executive’s tariff agenda, the market impact is already evident: S&P 500 futures are under pressure and the Nasdaq 100 has slipped 2%. 

Bond markets have begun to price in both recessionary risk and fiscal stress. U.S. 10-year term premiums surged to near 1%, a level not seen in months, as Moody’s recent downgrade of U.S. debt casts doubt on long-term credibility. The dollar’s safe-haven bid is now competing with gold and yen inflows, as the DXY stalls below 104. 

This week’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) will be pivotal. Consensus is a modest 130K jobs added—down from April’s 177K. If ADP and JOLTS data surprise to the downside earlier in the week, the dollar could face broad selling, particularly versus CHF and JPY. 

Meanwhile, the BoC and ECB are both expected to cut rates. Traders will watch for forward guidance tone, with ECB’s Lagarde under pressure to balance inflation risks against weak PMIs. 

Conclusion: 

The macro environment is turning defensive again. Between U.S. policy-induced tariff shocks, weakening employment momentum, and potential ECB/BoC easing, the FX market is ripe for breakouts. Stay risk-aware and tactically flexible—Errante Academy will keep you updated with midweek updates and trade setups. 

Market Events and Announcements 

Monday, June 2 

• 5:00pm – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: Expected 49.3 vs 48.7 prior. 

• 8:00pm – USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks 

Tuesday, June 3 

• 9:30am – CHF CPI m/m: Forecast 0.2%. 

• Tentative – JPY BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks 

• 5:00pm – USD JOLTS Job Openings: Previous 7.19M 

Wednesday, June 4 

• 4:30am – AUD GDP q/q: Forecast at 0.4%, down from 0.6%. 

• 3:15pm – USD ADP Employment: Forecast 110K vs 62K prior. 

• 4:45pm – CAD BOC Rate Statement & Overnight Rate: Expected cut to 2.50%. 

• 5:00pm – USD ISM Services PMI: Forecast 52.0 

• 5:30pm – CAD BOC Press Conference 

Thursday, June 5 

• 3:15pm – EUR ECB Rate Decision: Forecast 2.15%, down from 2.40%. 

• 3:30pm – USD Jobless Claims: Forecast 232K. 

• 3:45pm – EUR ECB Press Conference 

Friday, June 6 

• 3:30pm – CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate 

• 3:30pm – USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Forecast 0.3% 

• 3:30pm – USD Non-Farm Employment Change: Forecast 130K 

• 3:30pm – USD Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

USD/CHF – Daily Chart 

USD/CHF broke below the mid-May low near 0.8230, confirming bearish pressure, but is now testing a historically strong support at 0.8187. While a daily close below this level opens the door to 0.8116, oscillators suggest a potential bounce: RSI is stabilizing around 43, Stochastic is in oversold territory and beginning to curl up, and MACD histogram is flattening. A rebound from current levels could target the upper Bollinger Band near 0.8440. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 0.8365, 0.8475, 0.8554 

• Support: 0.8187, 0.8116 

Bias: Sideways to the upside from strong support; oscillators point to a potential rebound toward upper Bollinger Band 

GBP/CAD – Daily Chart 

GBP/CAD is rejecting from a long-standing resistance at 1.8695, failing to hold above the Bollinger Band midline. A short-term ascending trendline has now been broken, suggesting a pullback is underway. RSI at 53 and MACD histogram flattening show momentum loss, while Stochastic lines are crossing down from overbought. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 1.8679 

• Support: 1.8553, 1.8519, 1.8475 

Bias: Bearish below 1.8600; watching for deeper retracement. 

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante. 

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