Errante’s The Week Ahead: 6^th – 10^th October 2025 

Highlights of the Upcoming Week 

• NFP Delayed & Data Blackout – The US government shutdown has pushed September’s Nonfarm Payrolls release to next week, creating a critical information vacuum for the Fed and traders. 

• Fed Speeches & FOMC Minutes – With limited data, markets will focus on Powell and other Fed officials’ remarks, plus Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes, for clues on the next rate cut. 

• RBNZ Decision & Oil/OPEC+ – RBNZ’s expected rate cut and oil’s sharp weekly drop ahead of the OPEC+ meeting will shape early-week risk sentiment. 

What Now 

Markets enter the new week grappling with an unusual combination of strong AI-driven equity momentum, a macro data blackout, and political noise from Washington. The US government shutdown, now in its second week, has not only delayed the September Nonfarm Payrolls report but also interrupted key data releases such as CPI components, consumer surveys, and fiscal updates. This leaves the Fed with less visibility as it considers another rate cut in October. 

Treasury yields have edged higher, with the 10-year note near 4.10%, after Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized caution in easing policy further. Yet swaps still price in a quarter-point cut this month. The absence of NFP will likely heighten market sensitivity to Fed communications — especially Powell’s Thursday speech and the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. A more cautious tone could support USD modestly, while dovish hints might reinforce the risk rally and weigh on the greenback. 

Equities, led by tech, remain in a powerful uptrend. The Nasdaq 100 has made three consecutive record closes, fueled by multi-billion dollar AI deals and under-invested positioning. However, with labor data delayed, markets may be underpricing macro downside risk. Any shift in tone from Powell or unexpected weakness in jobless claims could act as catalysts for volatility spikes. 

For FX markets, USD enters the week supported by yield differentials but vulnerable to sentiment shifts. EUR will take cues from German trade data and ECB’s policy account; hawkish nuances could offer short-term support, though broader direction remains tied to USD flows. GBP is light on tier-one data, with focus on Mann and Pill’s comments for policy signals. 

CAD faces headwinds after a weak jobs print (-65.5k in September), adding pressure against both EUR and USD. Oil’s sharp weekly loss (~8%) ahead of the OPEC+ decision and growing surplus expectations further cloud CAD’s outlook. 

Gold continues to benefit from falling real yields and central bank buying, extending its multi-week rally. The lack of fresh US data may keep gold supported, particularly if Powell signals caution and shutdown uncertainty lingers. 

In short, macro uncertainty is colliding with momentum-driven markets. This is a week where Fed communication, jobless claims, and positioning dynamics — rather than data prints — will steer direction. 

Oil – OPEC+ Decision Looms Over Sharp Weekly Loss 

Oil is heading for its biggest weekly decline since June, down nearly 8% as traders brace for this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. The market expects discussions on accelerating supply hikes amid signs of a looming global surplus in 2026. Brent is trading below $65, and bearish sentiment has intensified due to Trump’s efforts to maintain Iraqi exports and shutdown-related demand concerns. A surprise OPEC+ restraint could spark a short-covering rally, but the base case remains for continued downside pressure toward mid-$60s. 

Bottom Line 

The coming week will be defined by macro silence meeting market momentum. The delayed NFP dramatically increases the weight of Fed communication and positioning dynamics in shaping price action. Tech-driven equity rallies may continue, but they are increasingly detached from labor fundamentals. FX traders should stay nimble: USD strength is vulnerable if Powell leans dovish, while oil and CAD face clear downside risk into the OPEC+ decision. EUR/CAD remains technically strong, while US100’s trend remains intact but stretched. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3) 

Monday, 6^th October 2025 

• No high impact event 

Tuesday, 7^th October 2025 

• No high impact event 

Wednesday, 8^th October 2025 

• 04:00 – NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision: A 25 bps cut is expected; guidance will shape NZD direction. 

• 17:30 – USD – Crude Oil Inventories: Key update amid sharp oil sell-off ahead of OPEC+ decision. 

• 20:00 – USD – 10-Year Note Auction: Closely watched for demand signals amid fiscal uncertainty. 

• 22:00 – USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes: Market-sensitive in the absence of NFP data. 

Thursday, 9^th October 2025 

• 15:30 – USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Major event for forward guidance in a data blackout week. 

• 15:30 – USD – Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 28): A key real-time labor signal in lieu of NFP. 

• 20:00 – USD – 30-Year Bond Auction: Demand here will be critical amid shutdown and deficit debates. 

Friday, 10^th October 2025 

• 15:30 – USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep): One of the labor components; wage growth trends will be dissected closely. 

• 15:30 – USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): Delayed to next week due to the government shutdown; this unusual gap increases the significance of next week’s release and current positioning dynamics. 

• 15:30 – USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep): Delayed to next week due to the government shutdown; this unusual gap increases the significance of next week’s release and current positioning dynamics. 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

EUR/CAD (Daily Chart) – Testing Resistance with Bullish Momentum 

Current Trend & Momentum:  

EUR/CAD is in a well-defined uptrend, trading above its 50-day WMA with sustained bullish structure since late July. MACD remains in positive territory, and Money Flow Index (~68) reflects steady buying interest. 

Main Scenario:  

A clean breakout above 1.6395 (127.2% Fib extension) could trigger follow-through toward 1.6444 (161.8%) and 1.6496 (200%) extensions. Sustained strength above the upper Bollinger Band suggests continuation potential. 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 1.6395, 1.6444, 1.6496 

• Support: 1.6358 (100% Fib), 1.6305 (61.8% Fib), 1.6220 

Alternative Scenario:  

A failure to hold above 1.6358 and subsequent rejection could lead to a pullback toward 1.6305 support, though broader trend bias remains bullish unless price closes below 1.6220. 

US100 (Daily Chart) – AI Momentum vs. Macro Headwinds 

Current Trend & Momentum:  

US Tech Index remains in a powerful uptrend, trading well above its 50-day WMA with prices hugging the upper Bollinger Band. Momentum is positive though short-term MFI has eased slightly (~62), signaling potential for consolidation. 

Main Scenario:  

Sustained closes above 24,946 (127.2% Fib) open the way for 25,154 (161.8%) and 25,384 (200%) targets. Dip-buying remains the dominant strategy as long as price stays above 24,550 (61.8% retracement). 

Key Levels: 

• Resistance: 24,946, 25,154, 25,384 

• Support: 24,783, 24,550, 24,183 

Alternative Scenario:  

A close below 24,550 would signal waning momentum and raise the risk of a corrective pullback toward the mid-Bollinger band (around 24,400), especially if Fed rhetoric turns more hawkish or shutdown risks escalate. 

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