Errante’s The Week Ahead: 9^th – 13^th June 2025 

Highlights of the Week 

• US CPI & PPI Take Center Stage: Inflation momentum to shape Fed policy tone after a steady NFP report. 

• BoJ Under Pressure: Yen remains fragile ahead of Japan’s GDP and inflation readings. 

• EUR & GBP GDP Readings: Key updates from Europe and the UK to assess recovery progress. 

• Risk Appetite Rebounds: Stocks recover from tariff shocks; dollar regains bid on solid macro footing. 

What Now:  

US Inflation Outlook, Market Sentiment, and Policy Balance 

Markets enter the week on firmer footing after a better-than-feared US jobs report steadied recession fears without igniting inflation panic. The May NFP report showed job growth moderating to 139K while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The result was a recalibration in Fed expectations: still no urgency for a hike, but less room for aggressive easing. 

Equity markets welcomed the data, with S&P 500 futures rising 1%, and bond yields ticking higher across the curve — the 2-year yield climbed to 3.99%, signaling recalibrated but stable expectations. The dollar firmed modestly, particularly against the yen and euro, as traders favored the greenback amid geopolitical risks and global policy divergence. 

At the political level, markets remain on edge amid lingering uncertainty around Trump’s tariff threats, especially against Europe and Apple. A recent court ruling temporarily curbed executive action, but Trump’s rhetoric is enough to re-price volatility. Equity flow and positioning suggest investors are cautiously re-entering risk but remain reactive to policy headlines. 

Looking ahead, all eyes will turn to US CPI data on Wednesday, with the YoY headline expected to ease slightly from 3.4% to around 3.2%. Core CPI remains the stickier component, and any upside surprise could quickly reverse the current soft-landing narrative. 

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+3): 

Monday, 9^th June 

• 2:50 AM – JPY GDP QoQ (Q1): Forecast -0.2% vs 0.6% prior 

Tuesday, 10^th June 

• No high impact event 

Wednesday, 11^th June 

• 3:30 PM – USD Core CPI (MoM, May): Prev. 0.2% 

• 3:30 PM – USD CPI (MoM & YoY, May): Prev. 0.2%, 3.4% 

• 5:30 PM – USD Crude Oil Inventories 

• 8:00 PM – USD 10-Year Note Auction 

Thursday, 12^th June 

• 9:00 AM – GBP GDP (MoM, Apr): Prev. 0.2% 

• 3:30 PM – USD Initial Jobless Claims: Prev. 247K 

• 3:30 PM – USD PPI (MoM, May): Prev. -0.5% 

• 8:00 PM – USD 30-Year Bond Auction 

Friday, 13^th June 

• 9:00 AM – EUR German CPI (MoM, May): Forecast 0.1% vs 0.4% prior 

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch 

EUR/JPY – Daily Chart 

EUR/JPY has broken decisively above the recent range highs, confirming bullish continuation. The pair surged through the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at 164.65 and is now trading near 164.79, eyeing the 161.80% and 200% extension levels at 165.15 and 165.70, respectively. 

• RSI above 60 confirms upward momentum without being overbought. 

• MACD remains positive and rising, supporting continued upside. 

• Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory, but not yet reversing. 

Key Levels: 

• Support: 164.25, 163.70 

• Resistance: 165.15, 165.70 

Bias:  

Bullish continuation toward 165.70 while above 164.25. A close below 163.70 would be the first signal of exhaustion. 

USD/JPY – Daily Chart 

USD/JPY is in a corrective bullish recovery from prior weakness. Price is challenging the confluence of resistance around 144.78 (61.8% retracement) after rebounding from 142.37. 

• MACD shows a mild bullish crossover, though momentum is weak. 

• RSI just above 51 suggests a neutral-to-slightly bullish environment. 

• Stochastic has turned higher from oversold zones, offering near-term buying potential. 

Key Levels: 

• Support: 142.37, 139.88 

• Resistance: 144.78, 147.34, 150.19 

Bias:  

Sideways to bullish, but upside capped unless price breaks and closes above 144.78 with conviction. 

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