US Core Retail Sales – Thursday 15th September 2022

US Core Retail Sales – Event of the Day

The resilience of the US consumer in the face of shrinking disposable incomes has been notable this year, despite high food and energy prices which appear to have had little effect on the US consumer’s willingness to go out and spend money.

US retail sales have been positive every single month this year, apart from a modest -0.1 fall in May. If higher prices are deterring consumer spending it’s not immediately obvious in the numbers we’ve seen so far this year, although we have started to see some signs of slowing. 

In July, US retail sales came in unchanged, while June was revised lower to 0.8%.

Looking forward, the US Retails Sales for August, expected to remain unchanged at 0.0%, will be important to watch for clear intraday directions. Also important will be the market bets on the Fed’s next moves.

US also releases business surveys for September from Philadelphia and New York (Empire index) giving more clues to the state of manufacturing.

Finally, US initial jobless claims, import prices and industrial production are also due out today.

It is important to note that investors generally are focused on inflation figures and will be looking at Friday’s University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, and its critical inflation expectations figure. It matters because Fed Chair Jerome Powell said so – and its importance is even higher when it is released days ahead of the bank’s decision. 

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