The Week Ahead: 14th – 18th June 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve meeting is the main event for markets in the week ahead and while the central bank is not expected to take any action, investors will be on the lookout for signs that policymakers think inflation is becoming more permanent. While the outcome of the Fed meeting will take the limelight investors will also be looking closely at data on U.S. retail sales and producer prices for an update on the strength of the economic recovery. China is to publish data on industrial production and retail sales for May on Wednesday. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will decide Monday whether to delay the full economic reopening planned for later this month.  

The UK is to release data on inflation, unemployment and retail sales during the coming week, which are expected to point to an ongoing rebound in economic activity. 

Investors will be zeroing in on the Fed’s statement at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday against a background of persistent concerns over whether inflation spikes could pressure the central bank to start tapering its stimulus sooner than expected. 

The Fed has repeatedly said that near-term price spikes will not translate into lasting inflation and Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to stick to this stance and reassure markets the Fed’s policy will remain accommodative 

While inflation numbers are rising the recovery in the labour market remain sluggish. The economy added 559,000 jobs last month after gains of just 278,000 in April. That left employment about 7.6 million jobs below its peak in February 2020. 

Most analysts are not expecting the Fed to begin discussing scaling back its asset purchase program before its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in late August. 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT+3.

Monday 14th June 

  • 16.00 – UK – BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

Tuesday 15th June 

  • 04.30 – Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • 15.15 – UK – BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

  • 15.30 – US – Core Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core PPI m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

  • 16.15 – US – Industrial Production 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Wednesday 16th June 

  • 09.00 – UK – CPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

  • 15.30 – Canada – CPI m/m, Common CPI y/y, Median CPI y/y, Trimmed CPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 17.30 – US – Crude Oil Inventories 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD & CAD Crosses.  

  • 21.00 – US – FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 21.30 – US – FOMC Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Thursday 17th June 

  • 01.30 – Canada – BoC Gov. Macklem Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 01.45 – New Zealand – GDP q/q 

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.  

  • 03.10 – Australia – RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

  • 04.30 – Australia – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

  • 10.30 – Switzerland – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment & SNB Policy Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses.  

  • 11.00 – Switzerland – SNB Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses.  

  • 15.30 – US – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index & Unemployment Claims 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 18th June 

  • Tentative – JPY – Monetary Policy Statement, BoJ Policy Rate & BoJ Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: JPY Crosses. 

  • 09.00 – UK – Retail Sales m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

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