NFP Friday – 1st April 2022

On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls data will take centre stage as a meanwhile distraction to the Ukraine crisis this Friday. Employment is expected to continue to advance in March following two strong reports averaging +580k in January and February. That said, we are expected a slightly lower figure than previous – 490,000 jobs to be added in the United States in March with the unemployment rate falling to 3.7%.

The unemployment rate could become just as important to watch as average hourly earnings for signs of a tight labour market, with further declines likely to increase the Feds sense of urgency in raising rates at least back towards their estimated long-run neutral rate.

Before that, the Fed’s favourite inflation metric is released on Thursday. The data is expected to reinforce confidence in the US economy even as the risk of a recession grows in Europe. But there is a danger the Fed is about to tighten policy too aggressively.

Wage growth is expected to have accelerated after slowing down in February. Average hourly earnings are anticipated to have increased by 5.5% year-on-year in March, up from 5.1% in the prior month.

Events to Watch:

Thursday 31st March 2022 15.30 GMT+3

  • US Core PCE Price Index m/m

Friday 1st April 2022 15.30 GMT+3

  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Payrolls, & Unemployment Rate

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