NFP Friday – 8th October 2021

If the ADP Employment Change is anything to go by then we could have a stronger than expected NFP today.

US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids to 94.21, filling the day-start gap, during early Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the greenback gauge keeps the late Thursday’s rebound but remains on the consolidation mood on the weekly basis as risk-on mood battles pre-NFP trading fears.

Gold prices are stuck in wait-and-see mode over what will happen to real yields after the nonfarm payroll report.  Gold has struggled as both a safe-haven trade and inflation hedge and that might stay the case until the Fed officially starts tapering its asset purchases.  Over the next 24 hours, gold may consolidate between USD 1725 and USD 1775, but the risks are still on the downside.

US Congress got 61 yes, versus 38 no, concerning the debt ceiling extension by $408 billion until early December 2021. Although the final vote is on the way, the Democratic victory in the procedural voting is the key as Biden’s party holds power to get the bill cross the last door.

What can we expect today from today’s NFP?

Non-farm payrolls are scheduled for release on Friday at 15.30 GMT+3, and investors are looking forward to a strong report. Today’s report is an important catalyst to see when and how far the Fed will taper.

Job growth is expected at around 490K with the unemployment rate falling to at least 5.1 percent.

Fed Chairman Powell said at their last meeting that tapering could “easily” happen in November and it will not be contingent on a “knockout” payroll report. So as long as job growth is more than the previous month, we see a November taper announcement from the Fed.

This means that while a softer headline number could drive the dollar lower initially, it is likely to recover in the week ahead. Also, if the unemployment rate falls to 5%, it could offset any headline weakness.  

Have your trading charts ready for today’s NFP!

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