The Week Ahead: 14th – 18th March 2022

Overview for the Week Ahead

Oil prices shed as much as $4 a barrel on Monday, extending last week’s decline as diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine geared up and markets braced for higher U.S. interest rates.

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are set to talk again on Monday via video link after both sides cited progress.

Negotiators had given their most upbeat assessments after weekend negotiations, suggesting there could be positive results within days.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 15-16 to decide whether or not to raise interest rates.

U.S. consumer prices had surged in February, leading to its largest annual increase in inflation in 40 years, and is set to accelerate further as Russia’s war against Ukraine drives up the costs of crude oil and other commodities.

The Federal Reserve is expected to start raising rates this week, which would put downward pressure on oil prices. Oil prices typically move inversely to the U.S. dollar, with a stronger greenback making commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders.

Traders will get another snapshot of the U.S. inflation picture this week from the Producer Price Index (PPI) due out Tuesday. The latest print on PPI, which like CPI serves as a gauge of changes in prices of goods and services but from the viewpoint of product-makers rather than consumers, is expected to show another red-hot figure as inflationary pressures and supply-chain snafus persist. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a PPI, excluding food and energy, read of 8.7% for February, up from the already higher-than-expected 8.3% last month.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, consensus economists are expecting to see retail sales excluding autos, released by the U.S. Census Bureau, to rise in February by 0.9% compared to January’s increase of 1.0%, according to Bloomberg data. Bank of America attributes the gain to spending on gas and food services. The institution anticipates, however, core control sales, which excludes gas, autos, building materials and food services, to fall by 0.5% month-over-month.

Have your trading chart ready!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +2.

Monday 14th March

  • No High Impact Events

Tuesday 15th March

  • 02.30 – AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • 14.30 – US – PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, & Empire State Manufacturing Index

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Wednesday 16th March

  • 14.30 – Canada – CPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

  • 14.30 – US – Core Retail Sales m/m, & Retail Sales m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

  • 20.00 – US – FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, & Federal Funds Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

  • 20.30 – US – FOMC Press Conference

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

  • 23.45 – NZD – GDP q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses. 

Thursday 17th March

  • 02.30 – AUD – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • 14.00 – UK – MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary, & Official Bank Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

  • 14.30 – US – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index & Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Friday 18th March

  • No High Impact Events

There are a mix of medium impact events from Japan, Europe, Canada, & the US.

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