The Week Ahead: 14th – 18th November 2022

Overview for the Week Ahead

This week, investors will be looking at a spate of U.S. data, including Wednesday’s retail sales report, for more insight into whether the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes are cooling the economy. The U.K. government is finally to announce its new budget plan and investors will be paying close attention after the market meltdown set off by September’s ‘mini-budget’. Fallout from the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX will continue to reverberate through the crypto market. Meanwhile, economic data out of China will be in the spotlight after Beijing eased some of its strict pandemic restrictions on Friday, boosting hopes for an uptick in economic activity.

Concerns over the viability of the crypto ecosystem are continuing to swirl in the wake of the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX.

FTX, which filed for bankruptcy on Friday, was engulfed in more chaos on Saturday when the exchange said it had detected unauthorized access and analysts said hundreds of millions of dollars of assets had been moved from the platform in “suspicious circumstances”.

Rival exchange Binance stopped accepting deposits of FTX’s FTT token on its platform on Sunday and urged other exchanges to do the same.

Investors are now waiting to assess the extent of contagion within crypto markets, which have already taken a beating this year as central banks reverse pandemic-era monetary policy.

U.K. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is set to announce the government’s new fiscal plan on Thursday and markets will be watching closely after September’s mini budget from predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng sent sterling tumbling and forced the Bank of England to intervene to stem a rout in the bond market.

The U.K. economy is facing what is likely to be a prolonged recession as a cost-of-living crisis squeezes consumers.

Hunt has indicated that around £60 billion (£1=$1.1837) in tax increases and spending cuts are coming to tackle a gaping hole in the public finances.

The U.K. is also to release the latest data on inflation, employment, and retail sales in the coming days.

Inflation hit 10.1% in September and Wednesday’s data is expected to show an increase to 10.6% in October, which is likely to mark the peak given that energy prices are now being fixed by the government until April.

China is to release October data on retail sales, industrial production, investment and employment on Tuesday with economists expecting the figures to reflect the ongoing impact of the government’s zero-COVID policy.

Recent data showed exports and imports unexpectedly contracting, inflation slowing, new bank lending tumbling and property sales are in an extended decline.

Beijing said Friday it was easing some of its COVID restrictions, including shortening quarantines by two days for close contacts of infected people and for inbound travelers. This comes despite cases on the mainland at 6-month highs and some big cities under fresh lockdowns.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang vowed Saturday to continue to support the world’s second largest economy with policy measures.

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +2.

Monday 14th November

  • 18.30 – Switzerland – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses. 

  • 18.30 – US – FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Tuesday 15th November

  • 02.30 – Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • 09.00 – UK – Claimant Count Change

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

  • 12.00 – Europe – German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

  • 15.30 – US – Empire State Manufacturing Index & PPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

  • Day 1 – G20 Meetings

Potential instruments to Trade: All Crosses. 

Wednesday 16th November

  • 02.30 – Australia – Wage Price Index q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • 09.00 – UK – CPI y/y

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

  • Tentative – Europe – ECB Financial Stability Review

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

  • 15.30 – Canada – CPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

  • 16.15 – UK – Monetary Policy Report Hearings

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

  • 17.00 – Europe – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

  • Day 2 – G20 Meetings

Potential instruments to Trade: All Crosses. 

Thursday 17th November

  • 02.30 – Australia – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • Tentative – UK – Autumn Forecast Statement

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

  • 15.00 – US – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

  • 15.30 – US – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index & Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

  • 16.40 – US – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

  • 19.30 – Switzerland – Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses. 

Friday 18th November

  • 09.00 – UK – Retail Sales m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

  • 10.30 – Europe – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.

  • 17.00 – US – Existing Home Sales

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

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