The Week Ahead: 15th – 19th February 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

Monday is President’s Day which means the US markets are closed today.   

On the economic calendar, U.S. retail sales figures and the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting will be the main events to watch this week. Market participants will also be closely following Thursday’s hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on the recent trading turmoil in GameStop (NYSE:GME) and other heavily shorted stocks, whilst Bitcoin is closing in on $50K!! 

President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package will move to the next stage during the week, with the House Budget Committee pulling all the components into a single piece of legislation. 

Biden’s proposed spending package, coming on top of $4 trillion enacted by his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, would have important consequences for a global economy that is slowly and unevenly recovering after last year suffering its worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. 

On Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged G7 finance leaders to provide more fiscal support to promote a robust and lasting recovery, telling them “the time to go big is now.” 

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.62% to 90.480

For Europe, on the monetary policy front, the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes are due out on Thursday. We can expect plenty of interest. In the last press conference, ECB President stood by the ECB growth forecasts. Lagarde did warn of downside risks, however. 

The EUR ended the week against the USD up by 0.61% to $1.2120

For the UK this week, expect the retail sales and services PMI numbers to have the greatest impact on the Pound. 

The Pound ended the week against the USD up by 0.83% to $1.3849

For Australia, January employment figures are due out on Thursday ahead of wage growth figures on Friday. 

Expect the employment numbers to have the greatest impact. Consumer spending remains key to an economic recovery. A weakening in labour market conditions would test support for the Aussie Dollar. 

The Aussie Dollar ended the week against the USD up by 1.08% to $0.7761

With the Chinese market closed for Chinese New Year, there are no material stats to consider in the week. 

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.12% to CNY6.4582 against the U.S Dollar. 

For Japan, it’s a busy week with 4th quarter GDP, finalized industrial production figures, inflation figures, and prelim PMI numbers all coming up.  The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.43% to ¥104.94 against the U.S Dollar. 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT+2. 

Monday 15th February 

  • No High Impact Events Today 

Tuesday 16th February 

  • 02.30  Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

Wednesday 17th February  

  • 03.00 – Australia  RBA Assist Gov. Kent Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • 09.00 – UK– CPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

  • 15.30 – Canada  CPI m/m  

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 15.30 – US – Core Retail Sales & Retails Sales m/m  

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Thursday 18th February 

  • 02.30 – Australia – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

  • 15.30 – US – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index & Unemployment Claims 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 17.00 – US – Crude Oil Inventories 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 19th February 

  • 09.00 – UK – Retails Sales m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

  • From 10.15 – Europe – French, German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

  • 11.30 – UK – Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

  • 15.30 – Canada  Core Retails Sales & Retail Sales m/m  

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 16.45 – US – Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

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