The Week Ahead: 16th – 19th March 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead 

This will be a big week for economic data, as Retail Sales, Import Prices, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts and Building Permits, the Philly Fed and, of course, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims all hit the tape as the week progresses. We also see the commencement of a new two-day meeting from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ending with a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell, who will have plenty of new grist for the mill, especially regarding inflation metrics. 

On the economic calendar, 49 stats come into focus. 

On Tuesday, the focus will then shift to February retail sales and industrial production figures. 

With consumption a key area of focus, expect the retail sales figures to have a greater impact. 

On Thursday, the weekly jobless claim and Philly FED Manufacturing PMI numbers will also draw attention. 

Other stats include housing, import and export price, and business inventory numbers. We would expect these to have a muted impact on the Dollar, however. 

While the stats will influence, the FED monetary policy decision on Wednesday will be the main event. 

Following reflationary fears, the FOMC projections will be key, barring an unexpected move by the FED. 

For Europe, ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will influence on Tuesday. We’ve seen greater sensitivity to the ZEW numbers of late. 

On Wednesday, finalized inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out. Barring upward revisions, however, the numbers should have a relatively muted impact on the EUR. 

In the 2nd half of the week, Eurozone trade data and wage growth figures and German wholesale inflation numbers will be in focus. 

Barring particularly dire figures, however, we don’t expect too much impact from trade and wage growth figures. 

Away from the economic calendar, a new spike in COVID-19 cases and new containment measures could test EUR support early in the week. 

Keep an eye on the EUR crosses! 

For the UK, the markets will be looking to get the BoE’s view on inflation and the economic outlook. A shift in monetary policy had been on the cards after the review of negative rates, we wait to see the BOE’s move on Thursday. 

It is a very busy week of releases for Canada, expect crude oil inventory numbers to continue to influence this week. 

For Australia and New Zealand , it’s a quiet week. 

For China, it is a busy week.  Industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, and unemployment figures are due out. 

For Japan, there are releases this week including the BOJ although the markets are not expecting much. 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT+2. 

Tuesday 16th March 

  • 14.30 – US – Core Retail & Retail Sales 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Wednesday 17th March 

  • 01.30 – Australia – RBA Gov. Kent Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • All-Day – Dutch Parliamentary Election 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

  • 14.30 – Canada  CPI m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 16.30 – US  Crude Oil Inventories 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses & Energies.  

  • 20.00 – US  FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement & Federal Funds Rate  

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 20.30 – US  FOMC Press Conference  

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 23.45 – New Zealand  GDP q/q  

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.  

Thursday 18th March 

  • 02.30 – Australia – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

  • 03.05 – Australia – RBA Assist. Gov. Kent Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

  • 11.00 & 14.00 – Europe – ECB President Lagarde Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

  • 14.00 – UK – MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Statement & Official Bank Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

  • 14.30 – Canada – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 14.30 – US – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 19th March 

  • Tentative – Japan  Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: JPY Crosses.  

  • 14.30 – Canada – Core Retail & Retail Sales 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

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