The Week Ahead: 1st – 5th November 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

The upcoming week will be jam-packed with earnings from big consumer names along with two key reports on the job market as well as the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and further guidance on a “gradual tapering process” of the agency’s bond-buying program.

As for economic data, investors will be watching car sales, construction spending, and the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI.

In the world of politics, President Biden will head to Glasgow, Scotland to attend the World Leader Summit kicking off the COP26 climate change gathering. Former President Barack Obama is also expected to be in attendance and deliver remarks. Meanwhile, in China, a new law designed to protect online user data privacy will take effect.

The main event of the week, however, will be the FED monetary policy decision on Wednesday. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia also decides policy on Tuesday, with markets challenging the central bank’s contention that rates won’t rise until 2024.

The Aussie dollar slipped 0.14% to $0.7509, continuing its retreat from a nearly four-month high $0.75555 reached last week.

The Bank of England announces its policy decision on Thursday, with markets weighing whether the monetary authority will raise rates at the meeting.

Sterling weakened slightly to $1.36775, and earlier dipped to $1.3663 for the first time since mid-October.

Meanwhile, the euro was about flat at $1.15575, staying close to Friday’s low of $1.1535, the weakest since Oct. 13.

All eyes are on Thursday for the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and their allies, together called OPEC+, with analysts expecting them to stick to a plan to add 400,000 barrels per day of supply in December.

Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Oct. 26, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

Oil prices rallied to multi-year highs last week, helped by the decision by OPEC+ to maintain its planned output increase rather than raising it on global supply concerns.

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +3.

Monday 1st November

  • 16.00 – US – ISM Manufacturing PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Tuesday 2nd November

  • 05.30 – Australia – Cash Rate & RBA Rate Statement

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.

  • 23.45 – New Zealand – Employment Change q/q, & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.

Wednesday 3rd November

  • 14.15 – US – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

  • 16.00 – US – ISM Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

  • 16.30 – US – Crude Oil Inventories

Potential instruments to Trade: USD & CAD Crosses.

  • 20.00 – US – FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, & FOMC Press Conference

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Thursday 4th November

  • All-Day – OPEC – JMMC Meetings

Potential instruments to Trade: All Crosses. 

  • 14.00 – UK – Asset Purchase Facility, BoE Monetary Policy Report, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary, & Official Bank Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

  • 14.30 – US – Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Friday 5th November

  • 14.30 – Canada – Employment Change, & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

  • 14.30 – US – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

  • Tentative – US – Treasury Currency Report

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

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