The Week Ahead: 22nd – 25th June 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve’s signal that interest rate hikes could come sooner than expected, is expected to dominate market sentiment in the coming week and likely the months ahead as market participants digest the hawkish shift in policy guidance. As a result, an appearance by Fed Chair Jerome Powell before Congress on Tuesday will be in focus, as will comments by several other Fed officials during the week.  

Investors will be keeping a close eye on next week’s economic data for clues on whether the recent surge in inflation — which saw consumer prices accelerate at their fastest pace in 12 years last month — will persist. 

Friday’s data on personal income and spending will be closely watched as it contains the core PCE price index, which is rumoured to be the Fed’s favourite measure of inflation. Stock markets traded lower last week, with value stocks in particular taking a hit and this pattern looks set to continue, in the short term at least. In the UK, the Bank of England meets on Thursday with markets on the lookout for new rate hike clues.  

Most analysts are not expecting any policy changes after the BoE last month said it would slightly reduce the weekly pace of its bond purchases. The recent decision by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to delay the full economic reopening by a month could be seen as reason for policymakers to stick to their cautious stance. 

But some analysts have not ruled out a discussion around tapering, particularly with other global central banks, notably the Federal Reserve, starting discussions on exiting crisis era stimulus measures. 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT+3.

Tuesday 22nd June   

  • 21.00 – US – Fed Chair Powell Testifies 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Wednesday 23rd June 

  • 06.15 – Australia – RBA Assist Gov. Ellis Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • 10.15 – 11.30 – Europe – Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI  

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

  • 15.30 – Canada – Core Retail & Retail Sales 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 16.45 – US – Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 17.30 – US – Crude Oil Inventories 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD & CAD Crosses.  

Thursday 24th June 

  • 11.00 – Europe – German ifo Business Climate  

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

  • 14.00 – UK – Asset Purchase Facility, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, & Monetary Policy Summary   

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

  • 15.30 – US – Final GDP q/q, & Unemployment Claims 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 25th June 

  • 15.30 – US – Core PCE Price Index m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

  • 17.00 – US – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

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