The Week Ahead: 24th – 28th June 2024

The Week Ahead: 24th – 28th June 2024

Highlights of the Week:

  • Central Bank Insights: Key speeches and statements from the RBNZ and BoE.
  • Inflation Data: Important CPI releases from Australia, Canada, and Japan.
  • US Economic Indicators: A slew of reports including GDP, PCE, Consumer Confidence, and Durable Goods Orders.

Welcome to another insightful edition of the Errante Weekly Newsletter.

Now What?

As we head into the week of June 24 – June 29, 2024, traders should prepare for a series of significant economic events that could drive market volatility and influence trading strategies.

This week will be crucial for monitoring currencies such as the CAD, USD, GBP, and EUR, with key data releases and central bank activities providing critical insights.

For the CAD, multiple measures of inflation, including CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, Trimmed CPI y/y, and Common CPI y/y on Tuesday, will offer a comprehensive view of inflationary pressures in Canada, essential for assessing the Bank of Canada’s future policy moves. Additionally, the monthly GDP figure on Friday will provide insights into Canada’s economic growth, potentially leading to significant moves in CAD pairs, especially if the data deviates from market expectations.

For the USD, several reports will be in focus: the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI and CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday will shed light on the housing market and consumer sentiment, respectively. On Thursday, the final GDP q/q and Durable Goods Orders will provide a comprehensive snapshot of economic health, while the Core PCE Price Index on Friday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, along with Chicago PMI and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, will be closely watched.

In the UK, BoE Governor Bailey’s speech on Thursday will be pivotal for understanding the economic and inflationary landscape after the BoE’s decision on keeping rates unchanged. For the EUR, the German Ifo Business Climate on Monday and the Spanish Flash CPI on Friday will be key indicators of economic health and inflationary trends within the Eurozone.

Market Events and Announcements

The times below are GMT +3. 

Monday, 24th June 2024:

  • 11:00 AM – German Ifo Business Climate (EUR): This index measures the business environment in Germany and is a key indicator of economic health. Previous value: 89.3.

Tuesday, 25th June 2024:

  • 3:30 PM – CPI (m/m) (CAD): An important measure of inflation in Canada. Previous value: 0.5%.
  • 3:30 PM – Median CPI (y/y) (CAD): Another key inflation measure. Previous value: 2.6%.
  • 3:30 PM – Trimmed CPI (y/y) (CAD): Focuses on the central tendency of price changes. Previous value: 2.9%.
  • 3:30 PM – Common CPI (y/y) (CAD): A stable measure of inflation. Previous value: 2.6%.
  • 5:00 PM – CB Consumer Confidence (USD): Indicator of consumer sentiment. Previous value: 102.0.

Wednesday, 26th June 2024:

  • 4:30 AM – CPI (y/y) (AUD): Measures inflation in Australia. Previous value: 3.6%.
  • 5:00 PM – New Home Sales (USD): Indicates housing market strength. Previous value: 634K.

Thursday, 27th June 2024:

  • 12:30 PM – BoE Governor Bailey Speaks (GBP): Insights into monetary policy.
  • 3:30 PM – Final GDP (q/q) (USD): Key measure of economic growth. Previous value: 1.3%.
  • 3:30 PM – Unemployment Claims (USD): Weekly jobless claims. Previous value: 0.4%.
  • 5:00 PM – Pending Home Sales (m/m) (USD): Indicates housing market activity. Previous value: -7.7%.

Friday, 28th June 2024:

  • 3:30 PM – GDP (m/m) (CAD): Measures monthly economic activity in Canada. Previous value: 0.0%.
  • 3:30 PM – Core PCE Price Index (m/m) (USD): Preferred measure of inflation by the Fed. Previous value: 0.2%.
  • 5:00 PM – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD): Final reading on consumer sentiment. Previous value: 65.6.

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch

EUR/CAD Daily Chart:

Since February 2024, EUR/CAD has been on an upward trajectory. However, recent price actions have signaled a shift in momentum. The pair recently broke below the critical support level at 1.46804, aligning with the uptrend line, indicating accelerating bearish momentum.

Impact of Upcoming Events:

The upcoming Canadian inflation data and GDP figures are expected to significantly influence this pair. If the data shows higher-than-expected inflation or stronger economic growth, the CAD might strengthen, maintaining the bearish outlook for EUR/CAD. Conversely, weaker data could undermine the CAD, allowing Euro buyers to regain control.

Key Levels:

As long as sellers maintain control below 1.46804, the outlook remains negative, potentially driving the pair below the 100-day and 34- day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA). Key support levels to watch are 1.46346, 1.46065, and 1.45605.

If buyers reclaim the 1.46804 level, they might target resistances at 1.47086 and 1.47545.

Bitcoin Daily Chart:

Bitcoin is undergoing a market correction phase, testing local lows and liquidating buyers to increase the position of major players. Bitcoin’s recent price action has been influenced by a rebound from the broken neckline of a double top pattern at $66,534.89. This double top, formed by peaks around $71,925 in late May and early June, has set a bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Sellers are currently testing the significant support level at $65,000.

Impact of Upcoming Events:

The upcoming US economic data, including PCE and GDP, will likely influence Bitcoin’s movement. Higher inflation or strong GDP growth could impact market sentiment and risk appetite, potentially driving Bitcoin lower. Conversely, weaker economic data might support Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

Key Levels:

If sellers succeed in holding the price below the $65,000 support level, Bitcoin could see further declines towards $62,864.13, with key supports at $63,203.72, and $61,144.64.

Conversely, if buyers regain control, they need to push above the resistance level of $66,534.89, near the 34-WMA to halt further downtrend, with the next target being $68,593.97.

Errante’s Weekly Newsletter brings you critical market insights to keep you ahead in the financial world. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with Errante.

If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].

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