The Week Ahead 26th – 30th October 2020

Today’s Market Outlook

Asian shares got the week off to a hesitant start on Monday as surging coronavirus cases in Europe and the United states undermined the global outlook, while China’s leaders meet to ponder the future of the economic giant. 

The Japanese Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.1%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is down 1.1%. Financial markets in Hong Kong are closed for a local holiday, the Chung Yeung festival. 

The U.S. has seen its highest ever number of new COVID-19 cases in the past two days, whilst France also set unwanted case records and Spain announced a state of emergency. 

That combined with no clear progress on a U.S. stimulus package pulled S&P 500 futures down by 0.6%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures eased 0.7% and FTSE futures 0.4%. 

The U.S. presidential election will again loom large as markets move to price in the chance of a Democratic president and Congress, which would likely lead to more government spending and borrowing down the road. 

The dollar was flatlining on Monday, having fallen broadly last week. The euro was holding at $1.1836 and just under its recent top of $1.1880, while the dollar was pinned at 104.86 yen and not far from last week’s trough of 104.32. 

The dollar index was a fraction firmer at 92.904, after shedding almost 1% last week. 

In commodity markets, gold edged down 0.1% to $1,898 an ounce. 

Oil prices fell further in anticipation of a surge in Libyan crude supply and demand concerns caused by surging coronavirus cases in the United States and Europe. 

Brent crude futures lost 73 cents to $41.04 a barrel, while U.S. crude also fell 73 cents to $39.12. 

Stock prices in London are seen opening lower on Monday amid fears over coronavirus cases spiking in Europe and more countries imposing new measures against the pandemic. 

The new wave already had forced governments in several countries including the UK, Germany and France to reimpose tough restrictions to prevent the disease from spreading. 

Spain declared a national state of emergency on Sunday to tackle a second coronavirus wave as the World Health Organization reported a third straight day of record new infections across the world. 

The WHO has warned that some countries are on a “dangerous track”, with too many witnessing an exponential increase in cases, and called on countries to take further action to curb the spread of the disease. 

In total, the UN agency’s figures showed that 465,319 cases were declared on Saturday alone, half of them in Europe. 

Italy has ordered the closure of theatres, cinemas and gyms, whilst bars and restaurants must shut early. 

The virus has now claimed the lives of 1.1 million people and infected more than 42 million globally. 

The pound was quoted at USD1.3025 early Monday down from USD1.3050 at the London equities close Friday. 

The euro was priced at USD1.1838, flat from USD1.1840 Against the yen, the dollar was trading at JPY104.87, flat from JPY104.80. 

Overview for the Week Ahead 

A packed week for monetary policy sees three major central banks hold meetings. The Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan are expected to hold fire for now, while the market assumes the European Central Bank will sound cautious on inflation and growth even if they skip a further easing. 

Data due out Thursday is forecast to show U.S. economic output rebounded by 31.9% in the third quarter, after the second’s quarter’s historic collapse, led by consumer spending. 

This week’s marquee earnings and economic data reports will mostly take place later in the week, with the majority of the Big Tech or FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google’s parent, Alphabet) stocks reporting earnings after market close on Thursday. 

In a busy UK earnings calendar this week, there are third quarter results due from lender HSBC and oil major BP on Tuesday and drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline on Wednesday. On Thursday oil major Royal Dutch Shell reports third quarter earnings, followed by state-backed lender NatWest on Friday. 

These events have the potential to influence the markets which means there is plenty of trading opportunities. 

Today’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT+2. 

Monda26th October 

  • 16.00 – U.S. New Home Sales  

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 16.30 – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks  

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses.  

  • 23.45 – New Zealand Trade Balance 

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.  

Tuesday 27th October 

  • 14.30 – U.S. Core & Durable Goods Orders m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 15.30 – U.S. HPI m/m & S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 16.00 – U.S. CB Consumer Confidence 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Wednesday 28th October 

  • 02.30 – Australia CPI q/q & Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.  

  • 16.00 – BOC Monetary Policy Report, BOC Rate Statement & Overnight Rate 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 16.30 – Crude Oil Inventories 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 17.15 – BOC Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

Thursday 29th October 

  • 00.00 – FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • Tentative – BOJ Outlook Report, Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Policy Rate & BOJ Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: JPY Crosses. 

  • 07.00 – Japan Consumer Confidence 

Potential instruments to Trade: JPY Crosses.  

  • 14.30 – U.S. Advance GDP q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q & Unemployment Claims 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 14.45 – ECB Main Refinancing Rate, & Monetary Policy Statement 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

  • 15.30 – ECB Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

  • 16.00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 16.30 – U.S. Natural Gas Storage 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 30th October 

  • 09.00 – German Prelim GDP q/q, & German Retail Sales m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

  • 10.00 – Zurich KOF Economic Barometer 

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses.  

  • 14.30 – Canada GDP m/m, IPPI m/m, & RMPI m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 14.30 – U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, & Personal Income m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 15.45 – U.S. Chicago PMI 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 16.00 – U.S. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, & Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 16.30 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

  • 03.00 (Saturday) – China Manufacturing PMI, & Non-Manufacturing PMI 

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses. 

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