The Week Ahead 28th September – 2nd October 2020

Market Outlook for Today 

Asian markets mostly gained in early trading Monday, amid the fallout of U.S. restrictions against Chinese tech companies. Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK, +1.32% rose 0.7%.  In mainland China, The Shanghai Composite is up to 0.3% while  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index HSI, 0.82% advanced 0.8%.  

In the U.S. on Sunday, a federal judge blocked the Trump administration’s ban against the popular Chinese-owned TikTok app from U.S. app stores. The U.S. has claimed the app poses a national security risk, and a deal to partner with Oracle ORCL, +0.84% and Walmart WMT, +0.41% to assuage those concerns is in the works. 

Stocks on Wall Street rose Friday, but for the week, the Dow DJIA, +1.33% was down 1.8%, and the S&P 500 SPX, +1.59% lost 0.6%. It was the fourth straight weekly decline for the two indexes, matching the longest losing streak since August 2019. The Nasdaq COMP, +2.26% gained 1.1% for the week, ending a three-week stretch of declines. 

This week is all about payrolls and presidential debates,” Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp, wrote in a note. “But political malevolence and the torrent of global pandemic concerns continue to rattle on investors’ nerves.” 

Stock prices in London are seen opening higher on Monday tracking gains in Asian equity markets and from Wall Street on Friday, as bargain-buyers moved in following a recent sell-off. 

Futures indicate the FTSE 100 index is to open 71.43 points higher at 5,914.10. The blue-chip index closed up 19.89 points, or 0.3%, at 5,842.67 on Friday. 

The pound was quoted at USD1.2775 early Monday, up from USD1.2700 at the London equities close Friday. 

New local lockdowns, further restrictions and tough new fines for failing to self-isolate come into force across parts of the UK on Monday. 

People across England will be legally required to self-isolate from this week if they test positive for coronavirus or are contacted by the test and trace service. 

If they do not they risk being hit with new fines starting at GBP1,000 and increasing up to GBP10,000 for repeat offenders or serious breaches,” the Department of Health & Social Care said.  

The euro was priced at USD1.1635, higher from USD1.1623. Against the yen, the dollar was quoted at JPY105.31, down from JPY105.65. 

Brent oil was trading at USD41.65 a barrel Monday morning, lower from USD41.76 late Friday. Gold was quoted at USD1,861.07 an ounce, soft from USD1,863.20. 

Overview for the Week Ahead 

Ahead in the economic calendar this week, there are the UK second-quarter GDP reading on Wednesday and the closely watched US jobs report for September on Friday. In addition, the first US presidential election debate between President Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden takes place in Cleveland, Ohio on Wednesday.  These events have the potential to influence the markets which means there is plenty of trading opportunities. 

Today’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT+3.

Monday 28th September 

  • 16.45 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

Tuesday 29th September 

  • 17.00 – CB Consumer Confidence (U.S.) 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Wednesday 30th September 

  • 04.00 – Manufacturing PMI (China) 

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses.  

  • 10.20 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.  

  • 15.15 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (U.S.) 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses & Gold.  

  • 15.30 – Final GDP q/q (U.S.) 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 16.45 – Chicago PMI (U.S.) 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 17.00 – Pending Hone Sales m/m (U.S.) 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Thursday 1st October

  • 11.30 – Final Manufacturing PMI (U.K.)   

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.  

  • 15.30 – U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, & Unemployment Claims 

  Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 16.30 – Manufacturing PMI (Canada) 

  Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.  

  • 17.00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI (U.S.) 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Friday 2nd October 

  • 15.30 – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (U.S.) 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses & Gold.  

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