The Week Ahead: 30th August – 3rd September 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

New data on the U.S. labour market will be in focus this week, offering an updated look at how economic activity has been impacted as the spread of the Delta variant ramped up in the U.S. over the summer.

Eurozone consumer price inflation is expected to continue to climb in August after rising to a year on year rate of 2.2 per cent in July, up from 1.9 per cent in the previous month and the highest levels since 2018.

Friday brings yet more clarity on the state of the US labour market, which will prove decisive in determining when the Federal Reserve begins scaling back some of the emergency stimulus measures it unveiled last year.

Last month’s report showed signs that acute worker shortages, which have hampered the recovery, have begun to ease. Nearly 950,000 jobs were created in July, pushing the unemployment rate to 5.4 per cent.

The August jobs report is set to be an especially telling report, capturing the impact of the latest surge in coronavirus cases on the U.S. labour market. Other recent economic reports already began to reflect the Delta variant impacts on activity: Job creation in the U.S. services sector slowed by the most since February, while manufacturing sector workforce numbers increased by the least since last year, according to IHS Markit’s latest purchasing managers’ index reports.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during the central bank’s virtual Jackson Hole symposium that there has “been clear progress toward maximum employment” and suggested “it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year” if the recovery continues to improve.

However, he also flagged the ongoing risks introduced by the Delta variant and added that an “ill-time policy move” could knock the recovery off its trajectory.

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT+3.

Monday 30^th August

17.00 – US – Pending Home Sales m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Tuesday 31^st August

16.00 – China – Manufacturing PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses.

15.30 – Canada – GDP m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

16.45– US – Chicago PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

17.00– US – CB Consumer Confidence

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Wednesday 1^st September

04.30 – Australia – GDP q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

10.55 – Europe – German Final Manufacturing PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

All-Day – OPEC Meetings

Potential instruments to Trade: All Currencies. 

All-Day – OPEC – JMMC Meetings

Potential instruments to Trade: All Currencies. 

15.15 – US – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

17.00 – US – ISM Manufacturing PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

17.30 – US – Crude Oil Inventories

Potential instruments to Trade: USD & CAD Crosses.

19.00 – US – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Thursday 2^nd September

10.00 – Europe – Spanish Unemployment Change

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.

15.30 – US – Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

20.00 – US – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Friday 3^rd September

04.30 – Australia – Retail Sales

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.

15.30 – US – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

17.00 – US – ISM Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

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