NFP Friday: 5th March 2021

NFP Friday: 5th March 2021

The last NFP data came in slightly below the consensus (49K Actual vs 50K Consensus), marking a 1K miss. As the data was quite close last time, markets were relatively un-impacted, with USD selling slightly inflated. 

Keeping an eye on this data is important for all USD traders, as it will likely impact USD direction. 

This week’s manufacturing and services PMI numbers were better than expected. This, in combination with the NFP consensus of 182K new jobs and average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.2% m/m again this month may push the dollar to rise.  

If we see a stronger-than-anticipated NFP reading, traders may look to the EUR/USD as a possible sell candidate. The world’s most widely-traded currency pair is approaching the bottom of the 1.1950-1.2225 range that has contained rates for the past seven weeks, and a break below that area could open the door for a deeper retracement towards 1.1800 as we move through the month of March. 

On the other hand, GBP/USD is poised to benefit from a potentially soft US jobs report. The pair is riding its 21-day EMA higher and has shown signs of forming a base this week after pulling back from last week’s multi-year highs. A weak jobs report could be just the bullish catalyst that cable needs to resume its established uptrend. 

February’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be released at 15.30 GMT+2. 

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