NFP Report & What to Expect – Friday 5th November 2021

This month’s NFP report comes out at a bit of an awkward time; after all, the FOMC just announced its plans to taper asset purchases earlier this week, and it looks like the path for monetary policy is relatively set for the next eight months as the Fed gradually slows down its stimulus.

Put simply: The next several jobs’ reports are unlikely to influence monetary policy meaningfully unless they’re dramatically better or worse than expected for a sustained period. That said, there may still be implications for fiscal policy as a major stimulus program winds its way through Congress as fears of inflation rose for the first time in decades. In any event, traders and economists expecting 455K net new jobs in this month’s NFP report, with the average hourly earnings figure expect to rise 0.4% m/m.

The state of the US labour market remains more uncertain and volatile than usual as it emerges from the unprecedented disruption of the COVID pandemic. That said, weighing the data and our internal models, the leading indicators point to a slightly below-expectation reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 250-450k range, albeit with a bigger band of uncertainty than ever given the current global backdrop.

Friday 5th November High Impact Events

Times below are GMT+2

  • 14.30 – Canada – Employment Change, & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

  • 14.30 – US – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, & Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

  • Tentative – US – Treasury Currency Report

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

If you have any questions, please email our Education Centre.

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