US Services PMI numbers, inflation, and personal income/spending to impact bets on a March Fed rate cut.
The ECB monetary policy decision and press conference will be pivotal for the EUR.
Stimulus chatter from Beijing and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision also needs consideration.
For the US on Wednesday, preliminary private sector PMIs for January warrant investor attention.
Q4 GDP numbers, core durable goods orders, and jobless claims data will garner investor interest on Thursday. The GDP numbers and labour market data will likely have more influence. Weaker-than-expected GDP figures and a spike in jobless claims could raise bets on a March Fed rate cut.
However, inflation and personal spending/income numbers will influence interest rate expectations on Friday. Softer inflation numbers and a pullback in income/spending would increase bets on a March Fed rate cut.
Preliminary private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will influence EUR/USD on Wednesday. The Services PMI numbers will have more impact. The services sector remains the driving force behind inflation. Weaker service sector activity and downward trends in input prices could incentivise the ECB to begin discussing rate cuts.
On Thursday, German business sentiment figures also need consideration. Weaker sentiment could raise concerns about the labor market amidst the threat of a prolonged recession. A deteriorating macroeconomic environment could impact hiring plans and affect private consumption.
However, the ECB monetary policy decision (Thurs) will be the focal point. The markets expect the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged, putting investor focus on the ECB press conference. ECB President Lagarde and voting members have poured cold water on discussions about rate cuts. The outlook toward the economy, inflation, and interest rates will warrant investor attention.
On Friday, German consumer confidence figures for February will also need consideration. A weakening consumer confidence environment could signal a pullback in consumer spending. Downward trends in consumer spending could further impact the German economy. German private consumption contributes over 50% to the German economy.
Beyond the numbers, ECB commentary will move the dial. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on Monday and at the ECB press conference.
A pickup in UK services sector activity could delay Bank of England discussions about interest rate cuts. Last week, UK inflation unexpectedly accelerated, while retail sales plummeted. A pickup in service sector input prices would align with Bank of England plans to delay discussions on rate cuts.
Expectations around a Bank of Japan rate rise have diminished significantly in the last few weeks, with the latest economic data lending support to the idea that there is no rush to raise rates out of negative territory. The weakness of the US dollar in recent weeks has helped ease the pressure on the BOJ in recent weeks.
Recent inflation numbers have pointed to an easing of price pressures with a sharp slowdown in cash earnings in November. At its last meeting in December the BOJ kept monetary policy unchanged while offering little in the way of guidance as to their future intentions. That said the central bank is still expected to try and begin the process of a more normal monetary policy over the next few months with rates expected to come out of negative territory in the first half of this year.
Have your trading charts ready this week!
This Week’s High Impact Events
The times below are GMT +2.
Monday 22nd January
No High Impact Events
Tuesday 23rd January
Tentative – Japan – Monetary Policy Statement, BoJ Policy Rate, BoJ Outlook Report, BoJ Press Conference
Potential instruments to Trade: JPY Crosses.
23.45 – New Zealand – CPI q/q
Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses.
Wednesday 24th January
From 10.15 – Europe – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.
11.30 – UK – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.
16.45 – US – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
15.15 – Europe – Main Refinancing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement
Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.
15.30 – US – Unemployment Claims, Advance GDP q/q
Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.
15.45 – Europe – ECB Press Conference
Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.
Friday 26th January
15.30 – US – Core PCE Price Index m/m
Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.
If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].
We are Errante. Trading made personal.
Share with a Friend
Os CFDs são instrumentos complexos e vêm com um elevado risco de perder dinheiro rapidamente devido à alavancagem. 33.33% das contas de pequenos investidores perdem dinheiro quando negoceiam CFDs com este fornecedor. Deve considerar se compreende como funcionam os CFDs e se pode correr o elevado risco de perder o seu dinheiro. Leia a nossa Divulgação de Risco. Leia nossa divulgação de riscos.
This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping our team to understand which sections of the website you find most interesting and useful.
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
3rd Party Cookies
This website uses Google Analytics to collect anonymous information such as the number of visitors to the site, and the most popular pages.
Keeping this cookie enabled helps us to improve our website.
Please enable Strictly Necessary Cookies first so that we can save your preferences!
English
Español
Italiano
