The Week Ahead: 9th – 14th October 2023

Overview for the Week Ahead

Monday marks Columbus Day with many banks closed for the federal holiday, but U.S. financial markets will be open for trading.

U.S. inflation data could offer more clarity on the future path of interest rates after Friday’s strong jobs report while Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting will also be closely scrutinized. Meanwhile, third-quarter earnings season gets underway and energy prices remain in focus. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.

Investors will get data for the producer price index; the first of two inflation reports of the week. The PPI is expected to rise 1.6%, matching the prior month, per economist estimates.

The Consumer Price Index will be released, and economists expect the inflation rate to rise by 3.6% compared to a 3.7% rise in the prior month.

The U.S. central bank is to publish the minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday with market watchers looking for clues on whether policymakers are leaning toward another rate hike before the end of the year.

Investors will also get the chance to hear from several Fed officials during the week including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan along with Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and Governor Christopher Waller.

Global finance officials and central bankers are heading to the Moroccan city of Marrakesh for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The meetings are being held against a backdrop of worries over whether inflation can be brought back under control without tipping major economies into a crisis.

In addition to multiple appearances by central bankers and policymakers the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which contains an updated round of forecasts, is to be released on Tuesday.

After 14 consecutive rate hikes, the BOE has pressed pause on its quickest monetary tightening in three decades. Britain’s economy is responding slowly to higher borrowing costs, but the outlook has darkened significantly since the start of the second half, with stagnant gross domestic product figures threatening to turn into a recession.

Policymakers led by Governor Andrew Bailey are likely to cut inflation and growth forecasts after their next meeting concludes on Nov. 2. That would help explain why in September they unexpectedly held their fire on further rate hikes despite prices growing at three times their 2% target. The gloom may be a challenge for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government, which is likely to seek re-election next year.

Have your trading charts ready this week!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +3.

Monday 9th October

No High Impact Events

Tuesday 10^th October

No High Impact Events

Wednesday 11^th October

15.30 – US – Core PPI m/m. PPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

21.00 – US – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Thursday 12^th October

09.00 – UK – GDP m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.

15.30 – US – Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, CPI y/y, Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Friday 13^th October

04.30 – China – CPI y/y

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses.

11.00 – UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.

16.00 – Europe – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.

16.00 – US – FOMC Member Harker Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

17.00 – US – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Saturday 14^th October

18.00 – UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.

If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].

We are Errante. Trading made personal.