The Week Ahead: 18th – 23rd October 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

The first big wave of earnings reports will give investors plenty to digest in the coming week, while U.S data could help cement expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin tapering. UK inflation data later in the week could reinforce growing expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the first bitcoin futures ETF is set to begin trading, propelling the digital currency closer to all-time highs.

Data on Wednesday is expected to point to the fastest increase in UK consumer price inflation in nearly nine years in September, with economists forecasting a reading of 3.2% year-over-year.

The report will be keenly watched amid growing expectations for the BoE to hike interest rates before the end of the year to tackle surging inflation, becoming the first major central bank to do so since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

Surging energy prices and supply-chain bottlenecks mean that the BoE expects inflation to exceed 4% at the end of the year and remain around that level in the first half of 2022.

The first U.S.-listed bitcoin futures ETFs are set to launch in the coming week, barring a last-minute objection from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The ProShares Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund is scheduled to start trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. A day later, the Invesco Bitcoin Strategy ETF, would also be allowed to launch unless the SEC blocks it.

The ETFs will be based on bitcoin futures that already trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rather than the cryptocurrency itself amid regulatory concerns over a potential lack of liquidity and the risk of price manipulation on spot exchanges.

The launch of the ETFs could pave the way for a stream of similar products, potentially fuelling a run higher for the world’s largest digital currency which hit peaks of $62,892 on Friday, not far from its all-time highs of $64,778.

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +3.

Monday 18^th October

16.15 – US – Industrial Production m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

17.30 – Canada – BOC Business Outlook Survey

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

Tuesday 19^th October

03.30 – Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.

15.05 – GBP – BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.

22.00 – US – FOMC Member Waller Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Wednesday 20^th October

09.00 – UK – CPI y/y

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.

15.30 – Canada – CPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

17.30 – US – Crude Oil Inventories

Potential instruments to Trade: USD & CAD Crosses.

Thursday 21^st October

15.30 – US – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index & Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

16.00 – US – FOMC Member Waller Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

22.00 – Australia – RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses.

Friday 22^nd October

10.30 – Europe – German Flash Manufacturing & Flash Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses.

11.30 – UK – Flash Manufacturing & Flash Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.

15.30 – Canada – Core Retail Sales m/m & Retail Sales m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

16.45 – US – Flash Manufacturing & Flash Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

Saturday 23rd October

US – Treasury Currency Report

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.

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