The Week Ahead: 20th – 24th November 2023

Overview for the Week Ahead

In the holiday-shortened week ahead investors will be looking to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting for any fresh insights on the future path of interest rates. Retailers are preparing for what they hope will be another bumper holiday shopping season.

The Fed is to publish the minutes of its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting on Tuesday, a day earlier than usual, due to this week’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Recent indications that inflation is cooling have fueled hopes that the U.S. central bank is done with hiking rates and investors will be combing through the minutes for clues on where policymakers are leaning.

On the economic data front, figures on existing home sales are due out on Tuesday, followed a day later by the weekly government figures on initial jobless claims and October data on durable goods orders.

U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the crucial holiday shopping season that follows Thanksgiving at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient.

This year’s Black Friday comes against a backdrop of elevated interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

Data last week showed that U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in October, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was smaller than expected.

Oil prices jumped more than 4% on Friday, rebounding from a four-month low hit in the previous session, as investors who had taken short positions took profits and while U.S. sanctions on some Russian oil shippers lent support.

Still, both the Brent and crude oil benchmarks ended the week more than 1% lower, their fourth straight weekly decline, mostly weighed down by a rise in U.S. crude inventories and sustained record high production.

China’s deepening property crisis and slowing industrial growth also weighed.

With Brent below $80, many analysts expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to extend output cuts into 2024 when the group meets later this month.

The Eurozone is to publish purchasing manager index data for November on Thursday, with economists not expecting any meaningful pickup in activity. The bloc is also to release data on consumer confidence on Wednesday and the closely watched German Ifo business climate index is due out on Friday.

The European Central Bank is to publish its latest financial stability review on Wednesday, followed a day later by the minutes of its October policy meeting.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is to make an appearance in Berlin on Tuesday and will speak again at an event in Frankfurt on Friday, while several other ECB officials are also due to make appearances during the week.

Team Errante wishes a Happy Thanksgiving to all those who celebrate!

Have your trading charts ready this week!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +2.

Monday 20^th November

20.45 – UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

Tuesday 21^st November

01.00 – Australia – RBA Gov Bullock Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

02.30 – Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

15.30 – Canada – CPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

17.00 – US – Existing Home Sales

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

21.00 – US – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Wednesday 22^nd November

10.35 – Australia – RBA Gov Bullock Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

11.00 – Europe – ECB Financial Stability Review

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

12.15 – UK – Monetary Policy Report Hearings

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses.

15.30 – US – Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

17.00 – US – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

18.30 – Canada – BoC Gov Macklem Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

Thursday 23^rd November

From 10.15 – Europe – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

11.30 – UK – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

Friday 24^th November

11.00 – Europe – German ifo Business Climate

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

12.00 – Europe – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

15.30 – Canada – Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

16.45 – US – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

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