The Week Ahead: 25th – 30th September 2023

Overview for the Week Ahead

ECB President Christine Lagarde will testify in the European Parliament on Monday, in a session likely to touch on last week’s close-run decision to raise rates again.

Other colleagues scheduled to speak in coming days include Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane.

While national inflation numbers from around the region will draw attention before the release of the euro-zone report, another data highlight will be Germany’s latest Ifo business confidence reading.

Europe’s biggest economy may be contracting at present, and the index — due Monday — will show whether there’s any sign of optimism of growth improving.

In the UK meanwhile, which last week surprised investors by keeping rates on hold instead of an increase, final GDP data for the second quarter will be released on Friday.

In the US, the PCE report may be the last government figures that policymakers see for some time ahead of a likely shutdown that would start Oct. 1. When the government was closed in 2013, figures like the employment report and others were delayed.

Other data this week include those on new-home sales, consumer sentiment and durable goods orders. The Census Bureau will publish its third estimate of second-quarter growth as well as benchmark revisions.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host a town hall with educators, while his colleagues Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Thomas Barkin and John Williams are scheduled to speak at separate events.

In Canada, gross domestic product data for July will be released after preliminary data earlier suggested the economy was flat that month, supporting the central bank’s decision to hold rates steady at 5%.

Payroll and job vacancy data is expected to show the labor market continues to ease although wage growth remains strong.

Have your trading charts ready this week!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +3.

Monday 25^th September

11.00 – Europe – German ifo Business Climate

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

Tuesday 26^th September

17.00 – US – CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Wednesday 27^th September

04.30 – Australia – CPI y/y

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

15.30 – US – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

19.45 – Switzerland – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: CHF Crosses. 

Thursday 28^th September

All-Day – Europe – German Prelim CPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

10.00 – Europe – Spanish Flash CPI y/y

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

15.30 – US – Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Final GDP Price Index q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

23.00 – US – Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Friday 29^th September

12.00 – Europe – Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

16.45 – US – Chicago PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

17.00 – US – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

19.45 – US – FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Saturday 30^th September

04.30 – China – Manufacturing PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses.

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