The Week Ahead: 6th – 10th December 2021

Overview for the Week Ahead

In November, non-farm payrolls rose by just 210k. While the rise was modest, the unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 4.2%. This was in spite of the participation rate increasing from 61.6% to 61.8%. 

Service sector PMIs also impressed, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rising from 66.7 to 69.1 in November. 

The surge in inflation this year reflects resilient demand, fragile transportation networks and shortages of both supplies and labour, pressures inflicted by the disruption of the pandemic that are reverberating throughout the world economy. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signalled that the worsening price environment is likely to encourage officials to accelerate stimulus withdrawal, an assessment that may still stand despite the smallest gain in jobs growth this year being revealed in data on Friday. 

While the stats provided direction in the week, FED Chair Powell testimony was pivotal for the markets. The FED Chair talked of the need to discuss speeding up the tapering of bond purchases. Powell also said that the reference to transitory, in relation to inflation, should be removed, raising the chances of a sooner than expected rate hike. 

The price of Bitcoin plunged early Saturday to just above $42,000. The pioneer digital currency has rebounded to $49,000, but that’s still well below Friday afternoon levels, according to Coindesk. Ethereum is above $4,100, also well off Saturday morning lows just above $3,500 and about where it was at Friday’s stock market close. 

Both have pulled back from early November peaks, especially Bitcoin. 

The price of Bitcoin hit a record of $68,990.90, around the time the first Bitcoin futures ETFs launched. The cryptocurrency tried to find support around its 50-day line but retreated late last week. 

The crypto sell-off comes as financial assets are under pressure due to the Omicron Covid variant and hawkish Fed rhetoric as it confronts not-so-transitory inflation. 

This Week’s High Impact Events 

The times below are GMT +2. 

Monday 6th December  

  • No High Impact Events 

Tuesday 7th December 

  • 05.30 – Australia – Cash Rate & RBA Rate Statement 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • 12.00 – Europe – ZEW Economic Sentiment 

Potential instruments to Trade: EUR Crosses. 

Wednesday 8th December 

  • 17.00 – Canada – BoC Rate Statement & Overnight Rate  

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

  • Tentative – Canada – BoC Press Conference 

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses. 

  • 17.00 – US – Jolts Job Openings 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

  • 17.30 – US – Crude Oil Inventories 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD & CAD Crosses. 

  • 20.01 – US – 10-Yr Bond Auction 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses.  

Thursday 9th December 

  • No High Impact Events 

Friday 10th December 

  • 00.00 – Australia – RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks 

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

  • 15.30 – US – CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m 

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

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