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• The Week Ahead: 7th – 11th August 2023

The Week Ahead: 7th – 11th August 2023

Overview for the Week Ahead

Everyone will be watching the US inflation report as a cool report could help support soft landing hopes and seal the deal for some that the Fed is done raising rates. Expectations for the July inflation report is for headline inflation to rise towards the mid-3% range, while core inflation remains steady and holding onto the lowest levels since 2021 on both a monthly basis at 0.2% and at 4.8% from a year ago.   Any hot surprises might bolster the case that the Fed may need to raise rates at the November meeting.

Thursday is all about the inflation report and the initial jobless claims. Friday contains the release of the PPI report and the preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment report/inflation expectations.

Fed speak will also include appearances by Bostic and Bowman on Monday. Harker speaks on Tuesday and Bostic provides remarks on employment on Thursday.

Next week starts quickly on Monday with both Eurozone Investor Sentiment and German Industrial Production.  The August Sentix Eurozone sentiment reading should show confidence remains low in August, declining further from -22.5 to -25.0.  

The June German industrial production data should show the manufacturing isn’t ready to rebound as expectations monthly are for a -0.5% drop, worse than the -0.2% prior reading. Weakening data points should support the view that inflation will slow significantly later this year.

This week is all about growth and that is disappearing in the UK. Friday’s preliminary look at Q2 GDP is expected to show the economy is stagnating.  The consensus estimate for Q2 GDP is for a flat reading (consensus range of 0.0% to 0.1%), down from 0.1% in Q1.  The BOE is still likely to deliver more rate hikes, which should mean the UK economy is recession bound.

Have your trading charts ready for a very busy week!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +3.

Monday 7^th August

• 15.15 – US – FOMC Member Harker Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Tuesday 8^th August

• No High Impact Events

Wednesday 9^th August

• 04.40 – China – CPI y/y, PPI y/y

Potential instruments to Trade: CNY Crosses. 

• 06.00 – New Zealand – Inflation Expectations q/q

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses. 

Thursday 10^th August

• 15.30 – US – CPI m/m, CPI y/y, Core CPI m/m, Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Friday 11^th August

• 09.00 – UK – GDP m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: GBP Crosses. 

• 15.30 – US – Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 17.00 – US – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

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