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• The Week Ahead: 2nd – 6th October 2023

The Week Ahead: 2nd – 6th October 2023

Overview for the Week Ahead

Economists have urged caution over the inflationary threat of soaring global oil prices and sticky price pressures ahead of Michele Bullock’s first board meeting at the helm of the Reserve Bank.

The RBA is due to meet on Tuesday for its October rates decision, where it is widely expected to extend its hold the cash rate at 4.1 per cent as it awaits the delayed impact of the 12 previous hikes.

Typically, changes to interest rates take about 12 to 18 months to flow through the economy to fully impact households and businesses.

Due to an increase in fixed-rate lending during the pandemic, some analysts believe the transition may be even slower through this tightening cycle.

While traders have ascribed just a one-in-10 chance that the RBA will increase the cash rate to 4.35 per cent when it meets on Tuesday, the likelihood of a hike before the end of the year now sits at 62 per cent.

With financial markets in Australia and further abroad firming on the view that rates will need to stay higher for long to curb inflation pressures, Commonwealth Bank pushed its forecast for the RBA’s first interest rate cut to May 2024, two months later than earlier anticipated.

The JOLTS report will kick off the first of three updates on employment in the U.S. The number of job openings is expected to remain around 8.8 million, which is down from the peak 11 million.

With the NFP looming, the outlook remains uncertain. More on this, later this week.

Have your trading charts ready this week!

This Week’s High Impact Events

The times below are GMT +3.

Monday 2^nd October

• 17.00 – US – ISM Manufacturing PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 18.00 – US – Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Tuesday 3^rd October

• 06.30 – Australia – Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

• 09.30 – Switzerland – CPI m/m

Potential instruments to Trade: AUD Crosses. 

• 17.00 – US – JOLTS Job Openings

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Wednesday 4^th October

• 04.00 – New Zealand – Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement

Potential instruments to Trade: NZD Crosses. 

• All-Day – OPEC – JMMC Meetings

Potential instruments to Trade: All Crosses. 

• 15.15 – US – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 17.00 – US – ISM Services PMI

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Thursday 5^th October

• 15.30 – US – Unemployment Claims

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

Friday 6^th October

• 15.30 – Canada – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: CAD Crosses.

• 15.30 – US – Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

• 19.00 – US – FOMC Member Waller Speaks

Potential instruments to Trade: USD Crosses. 

If you have any questions or require any assistance, please contact one of our support team members via our Live Chat or email [email protected].

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